| 埃及內戰將是世界夢魘 或引爆中東戰爭 | |
http://www.chinareviewnews.com 2013-07-06 09:13:12 |
據《環球時報》綜合報道,俄羅斯rosbalt網站4日發表題為“埃及的敘利亞模式”文章稱,如果埃及發生內戰,那麼敘利亞的內戰就顯得小兒科了。這可能會出現種族滅絕,造成數百萬的難民。與敘利亞內戰不同,屆時以色列可能會出面干涉,從而引爆整個中東地區的戰爭。 美國廣播公司稱,對於美國和其它中東國家來說,現在最大、最核心的擔憂就是埃及的穩定。埃及是最大的阿拉伯國家,每4個阿拉伯人中就有一個生活在埃及境內。蘇伊士運河也位於埃及,它是美國海軍出入波斯灣的通道,還是世界上石油走進國際市場的通道。 英國《衛報》評論稱,埃及政變充滿危險,將擴大伊斯蘭主義者和世俗主義者之間的思想鴻溝。該評論說,現在的挑戰是要避免重複過去的錯誤,例如迫害穆斯林兄弟會,將他們排除出政治舞台。這樣的過程只會加深伊斯蘭主義者長期所擁有的不公正感和受害感,並使得埃及的民主實驗以暴力告終。 潘寅茹 盡管埃及臨時政府總統曼蘇爾已於上周向埃及民眾公布了包括提前大選等舉措在內的過渡時期“路線圖”,但是,在如今亂象叢生的埃及,“政治和解”的進程依舊充滿未知。 游行、衝突,乃至暴力血腥的場景主宰著剛剛過去的一周。即使在周末,依舊有不滿臨時政府措施的埃及民眾走上街頭,呼籲盡早釋放前總統穆爾西。支持穆爾西的穆斯林兄弟會(下稱“穆兄會”)也號召民眾於15日再度走上街頭,抗議軍方將穆爾西趕下台。 此前,埃及檢察官辦公室在13日發表聲明稱,已展開對被軍方廢黜的穆爾西的刑事調查。此外,為了進一步穩定埃及動蕩的局勢,臨時政府的組閣進程也在快馬加鞭。臨時政府總理貝卜拉維已在上周就組建新政府事宜召開咨詢會,表示新內閣最快將在本周初組建。 穆爾西被指煽動暴力 自7月3日被埃及軍方趕下台後,穆爾西一直被軟禁在一處秘密地點,也並未受到任何指控。但是,埃及檢方13日發表聲明稱,已收到針對穆爾西及其穆兄會最高領導人穆罕默德‧巴迪亞(Mohamed Badie)等8名人員的檢舉,在對檢舉內容進行調查後,最終將對被檢舉人提起訴訟。 針對穆爾西的檢舉稱,其涉及間諜行為、煽動暴力以及造成國家經濟崩潰。分析人士認為,對穆爾西的檢舉毫無疑問是對其開展刑事調查的第一步。但是,埃及檢方在尚未對檢舉內容進行調查前就貿然對外發表聲明,多少顯得有點匪夷所思。 在上周,埃及檢方就已把對巴迪亞等一些穆兄會領導層“煽動暴力”的指控公之於眾。但是,目前,尚未有穆兄會高層遭到軍方逮捕。只是逮捕了多名穆爾西的支持者,指控這些人謀殺、煽動暴力、非法持有武器以及破壞公共秩序與安全等罪名。 對此,美國務院發言人珍‧普薩基(Jen Psaki)表示,其不會對調查的具體細節進行評論,但也希望埃及方面能遵照法律程序,避免將逮捕與調查“政治化”。 12日,也就是埃及檢方宣布對穆爾西欲進行刑事調查的前一天,普薩基在白宮例行新聞發布會上要求埃及當局盡快釋放穆爾西,稱此舉有利於在埃及建立“包容與可持續的民主”。但普薩基拒絕直言美方是否會在穆爾西真正獲釋後依舊承認其為埃及“總統”,也不願臆測穆爾西的獲釋將會帶領埃及局勢走向何方。 反對聲中籌備組閣 就在埃及檢方發布對穆爾西的指控時,臨時政府的組閣進程也在加速進行中。9日,曼蘇爾已任命前副總理兼財長貝卜拉維為過渡政府總理,反對派領袖、國際原子能機構前總幹事巴拉迪為副總統。10日,貝卜拉維就組閣事宜開始與各方進行對話。 貝卜拉維此前對埃及媒體表示,若要解決當前的政治分歧以及盡早化解流血衝突,急需“所有人坐在桌前進行對話”。這一點也得到了巴拉迪的認可。 貝卜拉維有意謀求穆兄會的合作,許諾給後者一些內閣職位。不過,貝卜拉維的“美意”並沒有得到穆兄會的認可,後者認為軍方解職穆爾西的做法“無效”,並表示不願與這樣的政府打交道。 目前,由技術官僚與自由派主導的埃及臨時政府的組閣已有初步眉目。除了總理與副總統人選確定之外,消息人士表示,貝卜拉維有意邀請左翼政治家阿卜杜爾‧哈里克(Godah Abdel Khalik)出任後勤部長。其在2011年中曾在該崗位就職數月。不過,最新消息顯示,哈里克已婉拒了臨時政府組閣的邀請。“我確實收到了曼蘇爾本人的邀請,但基於個人原因,我將不會在臨時政府中擔任這一職位。”哈里克表示。 此外,曾在去年督戰與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)借貸談判的漢尼‧卡德里(Hany Kadri)獲邀出任臨時政府財政部長一職。前駐美大使拿比爾‧法米(Nabil Fahmy)將出任外交部長。不過,上述消息人士表示,兩人尚未決定是否接受臨時政府的邀請。 上述職位對因政局不穩陷入經濟動蕩的埃及來說,至關重要。目前,來自海灣國家的貸款與援助已達120億美元,將主要用於緩解短期內的糧食短缺以及外匯不足。 對於即將出爐的臨時政府,普薩基表示,當前美方重點在於繼續推進埃及的過渡進程,美方的“基本目標”就是把包括穆兄會在內的各派都實現“可持續民主”,美方將與埃及過渡政府進行合作。 作為埃及的主要援助國,美國表示將繼續按計劃交付4架F-16戰機,這些戰機定於今後幾個星期抵達埃及。美國今年計劃向埃及交付20架戰機。埃及軍方每年從美國政府獲得近13億美元的軍事援助,戰機與坦克為其中一部分。 目前,美國政府正在對穆爾西政權被推翻產生的影響進行評估。如果美方判定是埃及軍方發動了“軍事政變”,根據美國法律,政府必須停止對埃及提供10多億美元的援助。 國內糧荒逼近 其實,自前總統穆巴拉克下台後,兩年多來的政治動蕩已使得埃及經濟徘徊在崩潰的邊緣。無休止的國內政治斗爭不僅嚇走了數以萬計的游客與投資者,也使得國內外匯儲備不斷縮水,甚至已威脅到了8400萬埃及人賴以生存的食品與燃料進口。 埃及是世界最大的小麥進口國,通常每年進口約1000萬噸小麥。政府從國際市場購置小麥後,將其中一半以享受政府高額補貼的低價大餅形式供應給民眾。 但是,在經歷持續的社會動蕩後,前總統穆爾西政府時期主管糧食供給的內閣成員巴薩姆‧烏達(Bassem Ouda)表示,埃及現在的進口小麥庫存只有50萬噸,不足國內兩個月的進口小麥需求量;國產小麥庫存僅為370萬噸。 此前穆爾西執政時期,埃及政府對進口糧食庫存嚴格保密。如今,國內糧食進口面臨空窗期,這就意味著臨時政府必須啟用來自海灣國家的資金援助。目前,阿聯酋、沙特阿拉伯和科威特已承諾向埃及提供包括現金、貸款和燃油在內的總值120億美元援助。 此前,聯合國糧農組織出台報告認為,如果埃及國內形勢難以好轉,並且外匯儲備持續短缺,埃及國內將爆發嚴重的糧食危機。 Warnings of looming food shortages in Egypt11/07 13:35 CET The crisis in Egypt is no longer just political. The most populated country in the Arab world is in troubled economic times, which is leading to food shortages. The United Nations has warned that civil unrest in Egypt and dwindling foreign exchange reserves could lead to serious food security concerns. A former minister under ousted President Mursi has backed this up, telling Reuters news agency that Egypt has less than two months supply of imported wheat left in its stocks. Bassem Ouda said the state had just 500,000 tonnes of imported wheat left. The country normally imports around 10 million tonnes a year. Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat. It distributes half of it as subsidised bread to its population of 84 million. Political turmoil in the country has kept investors and tourists away, leading to an economic crisis which has made it hard for governments to keep up imports of food and fuel. Egypt’s food security teeters with severe shortage of imported wheatby Jul 11, 2013 Cairo: Egypt has less than two months' supply of imported wheat left in its stocks, ousted President Mohamed Mursi's minister of supplies said, revealing a shortage more acute than previously disclosed. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, half of which it distributes to its 84 million people in the form of heavily subsidised bread. Although it also grows its own wheat, it needs huge quantities of foreign wheat with higher gluten content to make flour suitable for bread.Speaking to Reuters near midnight in a tent at a vigil where thousands of Mursi supporters are protesting against the Islamist president's removal, former Minister of Supplies Bassem Ouda said the state had just 500,000 tonnes of imported wheat left. Egypt usually imports about 10 million tonnes a year. Two and a half years of political turmoil have caused a deep economic crisis in Egypt, scaring away investors and tourists, draining foreign currency reserves and making it difficult to maintain imports of food and fuel. The ousted government closely guarded figures about its foreign grain stores even as a shortage of cash halted its imports. The United Nations said on Thursday that civil unrest and dwindling foreign exchange reserves meant Egypt could have serious food security concerns. Its import requirements next year would be equal to this year, it said. Since Mursi was toppled last week, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have promised $12 billion in cash, loans and fuel, which economists say buys Cairo several months of breathing room to fix its finances. Egypt had halted its purchases of international wheat since February - its longest absence from the market in years - until the eve of Mursi's overthrow, when Ouda's ministry bought 180,000 tonnes for shipment in August. "In spite of all the political differences between the parties, the international price of wheat was very nice, we bought about 180,000 tonnes of wheat," Ouda said, adding that it was his decision. Apart from imports, Ouda said the government had bought 3.7 million tonnes of home-grown wheat from a harvest that is now finishing. It still has 3 million tonnes of domestic wheat left in its stores, having begun milling the domestic crop in May. Egypt normally mixes its domestic wheat with equal parts foreign wheat to produce flour. Ouda said Mursi's government had tried to increase the ratio of domestic wheat, which would make the country less dependent on imports. "Our plan was to increase the contribution of the local wheat. We hoped to reach 60 percent," Ouda said. Mursi's government said on June 26 it had 3.613 million tonnes of total wheat but did not reveal how much of that was imported. Earlier this week a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attache in Egypt said domestic wheat stocks would last through October at current consumption levels. It gave no estimate for when foreign wheat would run out. In the past, Egypt maintained stocks of both imported and local wheat that would cover at least six months' needs. The Gulf Arab states' cash injection is expected to help Egypt replenish its wheat and oil stocks, but it will need to start buying soon and in large quantities. The USDA attache's report said it takes Egypt 2-3 months from announcing a tender to getting the wheat distributed to flour mills. Reuters Egypt: Imported Wheat Reserves Will Last Less Than 2 MonthsReuters | Posted: 07/11/2013 3:40 am EDT | Updated: 07/11/2013 9:19 am EDT By Sarah McFarlane CAIRO, July 11 (Reuters) - Egypt has less than two months' supply of imported wheat left in its stocks, ousted President Mohamed Mursi's minister of supplies said, revealing a shortage more acute than previously disclosed. Speaking to Reuters near midnight in a tent at a vigil where thousands of Mursi supporters are protesting against the Islamist president's removal, former Minister of Supplies Bassem Ouda said the state had just 500,000 tonnes of imported wheat left. Egypt usually imports about 10 million tonnes a year. Two and a half years of political turmoil have caused a deep economic crisis in Egypt, scaring away investors and tourists, draining foreign currency reserves and making it difficult to maintain imports of food and fuel. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, half of which it distributes to its 84 million people in the form of heavily subsidised saucer-sized flat loaves of bread, which sell for less than 1 U.S. cent. Bread has long been a sensitive issue in Egypt. Former President Hosni Mubarak faced unrest in 2008 when the rising price of wheat caused shortages. Although it also grows its own wheat, Egypt needs huge quantities of foreign wheat with higher gluten content to make flour suitable for bread. The ousted government closely guarded figures about its foreign grain stores even as a shortage of cash halted its imports. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Thursday that civil unrest and dwindling foreign exchange reserves meant Egypt could have serious food security concerns. Its import requirements next year would be equal to this year, it said. Since Mursi was toppled last week, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have promised $12 billion in cash, loans and fuel, which economists say buys Cairo several months of breathing room to fix its finances. Egypt had halted its purchases of international wheat since February - its longest absence from the market in years - until the eve of Mursi's overthrow, when the state grain buying agency, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), bought wheat under Ouda's instruction. "In spite of all the political differences between the parties, the international price of wheat was very nice, we bought about 180,000 tonnes of wheat," Ouda said. Mamdouh Abdel Fattah, vice chairman of GASC, was not immediately available to comment. DOMESTIC STOCKS Apart from imports, Ouda said the government had bought 3.7 million tonnes of home-grown wheat from a harvest that is now finishing. It still has 3 million tonnes of domestic wheat left in its stores, having begun milling the domestic crop in May. Egypt normally mixes its domestic wheat with equal parts foreign wheat to produce flour. Ouda said Mursi's government had tried to increase the ratio of domestic wheat, which would make the country less dependent on imports. "Our plan was to increase the contribution of the local wheat. We hoped to reach 60 percent," Ouda said. Mursi's government said on June 26 it had 3.613 million tonnes of total wheat but did not reveal how much of that was imported. Earlier this week a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attache in Egypt said domestic wheat stocks would last through October at current consumption levels. It gave no estimate for when foreign wheat would run out. In the past, Egypt maintained stocks of both imported and local wheat that would cover at least six months' needs. While the Gulf Arab states' cash injection is expected to help Egypt replenish its wheat stocks, it will need to start buying soon and in large quantities. "I think the aim of the Arab countries is to make sure Egypt doesn't fail with respect to food security and financial commitments with the international banking system, so I would think they will push to get the aid through quickly," said Kisan Gunjal, economist and food emergency Officer at the FAO. The USDA attache's report said it takes Egypt 2-3 months from announcing a tender to getting the wheat distributed to flour mills. (Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan in Abu Dhabi and James Mackenzie in Rome; Editing by Peter Graff) |


