埃及瀕臨內戰邊緣

09/07/2013 08:27

【埃及動盪】埃及瀕臨內戰邊緣，軍民衝突釀５１死

　　埃及瀕臨內戰，支持前總統穆爾西（Ｍｏｈａｍｅｄ　Ｍｏｒｓｉ）的陣營當地時間周一早
上，前往位於開羅的共和國衞隊總部外示威，與士兵爆發流血衝突，至少５１人死，逾４００人
受傷，但軍方與親穆陣營各執一詞，彼此歸咎對方首先發動襲擊。
　　穆兄會直斥事故為「大屠殺」，事後又呼籲支持者「起義」，並要求國際介入，避免出現敘
利亞式內戰。
　　軍方卻指事件源於「恐怖分子」衝擊軍營，故被逼開火還擊；警方指在穆兄會總部搜出武器
，下令關閉總部。
　　另反穆陣營內鬥加劇，唯一支持軍方政變的伊斯蘭反對派陣營光明黨，突退出籌組臨時政府
的談判，以示對上述屠殺事件的不滿。《香港經濟日報
》

埃及衝突接近內戰 多國表態各助一方

2013年07月09日 08:08:54來源： 中國青年報

雖然示威、鎮壓、流血衝突已造成至少35人死亡，1400多人受傷，7月8日的開羅仍有大批集會者高呼支持穆爾西的口號。新華社/法新

　　埃及的政治、社會大動蕩還在升級。軍方8日出動裝甲車，把守開羅解放廣場的入口，並對“穆斯林兄弟會”及其支持者再下狠手。埃及內外原本指望的回歸穩定，正在“阿拉伯之春”革命後又一輪對抗性內部衝突中變得遙不可及。

　　有分析稱，埃及再度大亂而引發的分裂與衝突將不止限于埃及社會，而是會迅速四溢而引爆周邊地區世俗派與“政治伊斯蘭”勢力對決。

　　街頭戰鬥不斷 軍方毫不手軟

　　7月3日突然行動推翻政府並軟禁總統穆爾西後，埃及軍方連日來繼續展示強硬手腕，接連對穆兄會及其支持者痛下狠手。

　　當地時間8日淩晨，示威聲援穆爾西的穆兄會支持者試圖強行衝入埃及共和國衛隊俱樂部，與守軍爆發暴力衝突。軍方隨即下令開槍掃射，武力驅散抗議者，造成數百人傷亡。雖然埃及衛生部事後未公布具體傷亡人數，但穆兄會下屬的自由與正義黨聲稱，當天軍方開槍射殺35人，傷者上千。

　　穆兄會支持者4日淩晨就曾前往軍方軟禁穆爾西的共和國衛隊俱樂部示威，並與駐守的部隊發生衝突。穆兄會當時即稱3名支持者遭軍人射殺，但軍方予以否認。

　　5日夜間至6日淩晨，穆兄會支持者與軍隊又爆發所謂“街頭戰鬥”。當時，數千名穆爾西的支持者試圖奪回被反對派聯盟“全國拯救陣線”支持者控制的開羅解放廣場，但遭到軍隊與反對派的圍堵。雙方發生大規模衝突，互擲石塊等物，最終以軍隊發射催淚瓦斯、穆兄會支持者被逐出廣場而收場。

　　為防事態再度升級，軍方8日出動坦克和裝甲車，把守在開羅的解放廣場入口，力阻穆兄會支持者再奪廣場。

　　多方衝突角逐 埃及深度分裂

　　國防部長塞西將軍3日一紙聲明罷黜穆爾西，一周來已在埃及社會激起支持者與反對者的對抗浪潮，一年多來早已生成的社會裂痕正加速擴大與深化。

　　3日宣布推翻穆爾西之前，軍方與反對派聯盟“全國拯救陣線”立場一致且進行了各種“變局”前協調。但罷黜穆爾西後，雙方卻在過渡政府總理問題上陷入分裂，進而演成與穆兄會角力的合縱連橫局面。

　　在過渡政府問題上，“全國拯救陣線”要求由其主要領導人巴拉迪出任，但遭到穆兄會與保守陣營的薩拉菲派光明黨的強烈反對。

　　支持軍方罷黜穆爾西的光明黨，此前同意軍方提出的經由選舉結束過渡的方案。但軍方8日開槍射殺穆兄會支持者後，光明黨宣布退出組閣談判，以抗議軍方的“大屠殺”。

　　穆兄會則要求穆爾西留任總統，並威脅將繼續示威——直至穆爾西復職。

　　“埃及正處在內戰邊緣”

　　可以預見，未來一段時間內，這三方勢力還將繼續針鋒相對，難有妥協，過渡政府短期內恐怕難以組建。更令人擔憂的是，這三方勢力背後都有龐大的支持群體。隨著三方角力日益白熱化，埃及社會將不可避免地走向深度分裂，甚至敵對性衝突。

　　俄羅斯總統普京7日警告說：“埃及正處在內戰邊緣……敘利亞已經陷入內戰。盡管聽上去很不幸，但埃及也正朝著同樣的方向發展。如果埃及民眾能夠避免這樣的命運，那將再好不過了。 ”

　　默契配合軍方 美國立場已明

　　此輪埃及變局中，最大的輸家可以肯定是穆爾西及其背後的穆兄會。

　　雖然穆兄會一再譴責、組織抗議軍方的“政變奪權”，但美國方面不僅拒絕這一說法，還出面勸說穆兄會接受“政變”事實，承認穆爾西已“出局”。

　　《紐約時報》7日以穆兄會高級官員為消息源報道稱，穆爾西3日被罷免並軟禁後，有美國駐埃及外交官隨即聯係上穆兄會，勸說該組織領導層接受這次政治變局，吞下穆爾西被罷黜的苦果，以盡快“重啟政治進程”。這無異于要求穆兄會放棄過去兩年經過革命、大選艱難取得的政治權力。

　　美國人敦促穆兄會承認“出局”並不令人意外，甚至可以認為美國與埃及軍方正在默契配合，按雙方的預定腳本推動埃及政治權力重組。之所以做出這一判斷，主要有兩方面原因：

　　其一，推翻穆爾西民選政府，埃及軍方得到了美國的默許。

　　6月30日，在埃及政局突變性發展的關鍵節點上，美國國防部長哈格爾曾與埃及國防部長塞西將軍進行電話溝通。7月2日，即穆爾西遭解職前一天，哈格爾再次與塞西通話。宣布罷免穆爾西後，塞西6日與哈格爾又第三次連線，商量應對之策。從事態發展來看，在如此密集的溝通聯係中，美國人至少默許了埃及軍方的行動。

　　其二，為穩定、守住其在中東的戰略利益，美國這次將寶押在埃及軍方這邊。

　　雖然美國總統奧巴馬6日重申美國不支持埃及特定政治力量或派別，並否認美國“和埃及某些政黨合作，以圖掌控埃及過渡”，但從美國拒絕譴責埃及軍方及不稱其為“政變”，卻出面施壓，要求穆兄會知難而退來看，美國已將其在中東的長遠利益賭在埃及軍方這一邊。這一方面是因為埃及軍方是美國一手“養大”，知根知底，可以信任；另一方面，美國堅信只有軍方才有能力最終掌控埃及局勢。而這不僅事關美國在中東利益，也包括以色列等美國盟友的安全關切。美國要力免埃及局勢失控，更怕阿拉伯世界再起不利于美方的新動蕩。

　　正如美國國防部發言人利特爾6日所透露的，哈格爾在當天與塞西通話時，特別指出“安全對埃及民眾、埃及鄰國和這一地區的重要性”。

　　周邊多國已分化為對立陣營

　　埃及政局突變，中東地區各主要國家再度面臨考驗，不得不在埃及軍方與穆兄會之間做出選擇。

　　以沙特、卡塔爾等國為代表的中東（相對）世俗派政權，選擇追隨美國，堅定地站到埃及軍方一邊。

　　在塞西宣布罷免穆爾西後，沙特與卡塔爾不僅高度肯定埃及政變的“歷史意義”，還第一時間向軍方指定的臨時總統表示祝賀。埃及央行行長拉米茲7日已飛往阿布扎比，要從這些海灣富國籌措本國急需的資金援助。

　　與此相對，以土耳其、突尼斯為代表的“政治伊斯蘭”勢力選擇了支持穆兄會。它們譴責埃及軍方搞“政變”，指斥軍方近日的行動無異于“大屠殺”。

　　對于正因埃及變局而分裂為世俗派政權與“政治伊斯蘭”勢力兩大陣營的大中東地區，英國廣播公司（BBC）7日評論稱： “這是一個危險時刻，不僅對埃及，對整個中東地區都是如此。”記者 陳小茹

Egyptian military massacres 51 in Cairo

By Johannes Stern and Alex Lantier 
9 July 2013

The Egyptian army’s bloody massacre of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) protesters outside the Republican Guard barracks yesterday morning in Cairo has shattered all claims that the army is carrying out a new revolution in Egypt. It is imposing a crackdown on opposition to Egypt’s military dictatorship, which will ultimately be directed against the working class—the main force behind all the mass uprisings in Egypt since 2011.

During morning prayers yesterday, army units first fired tear gas at pro-MB protesters and then, escorted by armored vehicles, marched towards them, firing into the crowd. The massacre left at least 51 civilians dead and 435 injured, according to Egyptian Health Ministry figures, though the death toll could still rise considerably.

The purpose of such a massacre is to terrorize all opposition to Wednesday’s coup and to the new military junta.

In order to understand the convulsive events now unfolding in Egypt and prepare the working class for the coming struggles, it is critical to grasp two different conflicts in Egypt. There are the conflicts inside the bourgeoisie itself—first and foremost over economic policy, but also on foreign policy issues and even questions of lifestyle—that have been inflamed since Mubarak’s ouster.

In the past weeks, this conflict took mainly the form of an intensifying power struggle between the MB, led by former President Mohamed Mursi, and more secular-leaning elements of the ruling class. The military also has financial and economic interests that it is determined to protect. Both factions have given their support to IMF-dictated austerity and restricting measures demanded by international capital.

The more decisive conflict, however, is the basic class struggle between the working class and the urban poor on the one hand, and the entire Egyptian ruling class on the other. This conflict has been further exacerbated by rising poverty and social discontent under Mursi’s rule.

Recent months have seen waves of factory closures and strikes in Egypt. The military takeover was preceded by enormous mass protests, involving tens of millions of workers and youth, against the MB government. The intervention of the military, however, was not an expression of this movement, but a preemptive strike directed against the working class.

The action of the military in the first days of the military coup expose not only the nature of the new regime, but also the reactionary role of the Tamarod (rebel) coalition, which has been supported by pseudo-left groups like Egypt’s Revolutionary Socialists (RS), which is allied to the International Socialist Organization (ISO) in the United States and the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) in Britain.

If the junta is currently concentrating on crushing the MB, it is because it has, with the help of Tamarod and the RS, at least temporarily sidelined opposition from workers and youth who participated in last week’s mass protests. This has given the army room to maneuver and to consolidate its rule, as it prepares for a more decisive trial of strength with the working class.

Tamarod was the brainchild of a coalition of liberal, Islamist and pseudo-left opposition parties. Besides the RS, its supporters included Mohamed ElBaradei’s National Salvation Front (NSF), the Islamist Strong Egypt Party of former MB member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, the April 6 Youth Movement, and even former Mubarak regime officials such as General Ahmed Shafiq.

Tamarod was never anything other than a platform for the bourgeois opposition, representing sections of the ruling class. However, in the absence of any force mobilizing the working class in struggle against the entire capitalist class—that is, against both the MB and the corrupt forces inside Tamarod—it could tap into broad opposition to Mursi, gathering millions of signatures.

Tamarod’s key demands—the dissolution of the Islamist-dominated upper house of parliament; the appointment of the chief of the judiciary as president; and the appointment of a free-market technocratic government—have been adopted by the junta wholesale as the basis of its rule.

In May, the RS threw their support behind Tamarod, promoting it as a “way to complete the revolution.” RS members collected signatures for Tamarod, organized meetings to promote it—on May 28 the RS cheered Tamarod leaders Mahmoud Badr and Mohamed Abdel-Aziz at their headquarters in Giza—and issued joint statements supporting Tamarod’s program.

Immediately after the military takeover, leading RS member Sameh Naguib hailed the coup as a “second revolution” in a statement on the British Socialist Workers Party’s (SWP) Socialist Workerweb site. He declared that “this is not the end of democracy, nor a simple military coup,” writing that “people feel empowered and entitled by the events of the last few days.”

The RS have also sought to mobilize protesters to defend the junta. In a statement published on June 6 on their Arabic web site, the RS write that “the stubbornness, stupidity and criminality of the US-backed Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Badie, its General Guide, open the terrifying horizons of civil war. This can only be stopped by millions coming into the squares and streets to protect their revolution. They must abort the US-Brotherhood plan to portray the Egyptian Revolution as a military coup.”

The RS then ask the junta to take “immediate steps to achieve social justice…and write a civil, democratic constitution which entrenches the values of freedom and social justice.” Such friendly advice to a junta backed by US imperialism brands the RS as a counterrevolutionary organization, whose hands are drenched in blood.

The suggestion that it is American imperialism, in league with the MB, that is seeking to slander the military seizure of power as a coup is absurd, given the fact that the US government has deliberately not used the term in order to avoid certain legal consequences of doing so, including the cutting off of aid to the Egyptian military.

In fact, Tamarod also maintained close contact with Washington and the European Union (EU) throughout the coup. ElBaradei entered into discussions with the US State Department and EU foreign policy officials, urging them to support a coup, as ElBaradei himself revealed in an interview with David D. Kirkpatrick in the New York Times last Friday.

In an article titled “Prominent Egyptian liberal says he sought West’s support for uprising,” Kirkpatrick writes that ElBaradei declared that “he had worked hard to convince Western powers [of] the necessity of forcibly ousting President Mohamed Morsi.”

Kirkpatrick writes that “on the days of takeover, Mr. ElBaradei said, he had spoken at length with Secretary of State John Kerry and Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s top foreign policy official, to help convince them of the necessity of removing Mr. Morsi.” According to Kirkpatrick, ElBaradei argued that “with so many millions in the street demanding Mr. Morsi’s exit…a military takeover was the ‘least painful option.’”

A revolution mercilessly exposes political charlatanry. The RS’ reactionary attempts to present the Tamarod operation and the US-backed coup as a “second revolution” are being refuted by mass murder in the streets of Cairo.

The RS’ current support for the military junta is the latest maneuver in a series of sordid operations since the beginning of protests against Hosni Mubarak in 2011. In response to the eruption of opposition in January 2011, the RS joined with ElBaradei and other factions of the bourgeois establishment in calling, not for the downfall of the regime, but for the government to institute “democracy, civil liberties and free and fair elections,” according to a joint statement issued on January 21.

After the January 25 protests developed into a mass revolutionary movement of the working class that forced out Mubarak, the RS threw their support behind the US-backed junta that came to power. On May 31, leading RS member Mustafa Omar penned an article for Socialist Worker claiming that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces junta “aims to reform the political and economic system, allowing it to become more democratic and less oppressive.”

When renewed mass protests erupted against military rule, the RS openly opposed a “second revolution,” shifting rapidly to support Mursi and the MB. In the presidential elections, they campaigned for Mursi, producing countless statements promoting the MB as “the right wing of the revolution” and Mursi as a “revolutionary candidate.” When Mursi finally became president, they celebrated his victory.

At the ISO’s Socialism 2012 conference, Sameh Naguib declared that “the victory of Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, is a great achievement in pushing back the counterrevolution and pushing back this coup d’état... Whenever there is the threat of counterrevolution, the Islamists will run toward the masses―will mobilize in the hundreds of thousands against the military regime.”

Naguib’s promotion of the MB as a revolutionary force was grotesque. As it turned out, however, it is the RS that again shifted, now backing a coup d’état against the MB.

The RS never give any explanation for these extraordinary twists and turns. They simply assert that the removal of the MB (which they suddenly denounce as counterrevolutionary) by the US-backed junta (which they suddenly praise as progressive) constitutes a second revolution.

Such wild, inconsistent political oscillations are the hallmark of a group representing corrupt sections of the middle class, closely tied to the bourgeois state and to world imperialism.

The RS’ latest maneuvers support the attempt by the Egyptian bourgeoisie and its imperialist backers to enforce policies demanded by finance capital even more ruthlessly than Mubarak and Mursi before it. ElBaradei has long been one of the most aggressive advocates for a new loan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In exchange, the IMF will demand savage cuts to subsidies for basic goods such as grain and fuel, upon which masses of Egyptians rely.

The army is cobbling together a government committed solely to carrying out the policies demanded by international finance capital. Besides ElBaradei, the candidates for the post of new Egyptian prime minister include Farouq El-Oqda, a former head of Egypt’s central bank, and Adel El-Labban, a former Morgan Stanley banker who is currently a leading executive at Bahrain-based Ahli United Bank.

A ruthless military junta dedicated to enforcing austerity will inevitably come into bitter social conflict with the working class. The critical task now is building a leadership in the working class, basing itself on a struggle for socialism against all factions of the capitalist class.

By providing support for a bloody US-backed military coup seeking to create conditions for a more violent crackdown on the working class, the RS have put themselves yet again in the camp of reaction. Socialist-minded workers and youth in Egypt should treat this organization with contempt. In the revolutionary struggle of the Egyptian workers and youth for democracy and social equality, it stands on the opposite side of the barricades.